On the big banks the reaction was also unanimousThey turn to the euro area and the industry Consider Renault vote against the FranceSignal is thus running as downward pressure to about 1Hyperactivity applauded in both hands across the AlpsI begin my tour Editor's note with the exhibitOscar on October 1The retirement home an economic barometerA television campaign is also on the menuMichel Camdessus told a conversation with MrsThe future of Christian Streiff is in any case issueFar Gazprom will go there In one year, the Russian gas became the fourth market capitalization world, just behind Microsoft. A $ 260 billion, its value grew by 106 since that in December 2005 the State become majority shareholder (51) liberalised trade and lifted the prohibition on the non-Russes to hold more than 20 of the capital.
In a context of rising energy prices, the world's leading gas producer earned then a success in the stock market, both in Moscow than in London or New York. Now, the action is worth 11 dollars when Renaissance Capital, one of the major Russian brokers, assigns it a goal of $ 8.25 courses... "The action is 13.5 times the estimated net result of Gazprom for 2006, against a multiple of 7 for Exxon and 7.3 times for Lukoil", recognizes Kaha Kiknavelidze at UBS in Moscow. It fixed it yet one another objective of course from 13.75 $ and Troika Dialog, of Russian markets, goes up to $ 15.75.
For his supporters, title can only continue its rise. Because not only Gazprom is an indispensable energy player, but his weight is growing. It holds the monopoly of Russian natural gas exports, the monopoly of domestic transport, and provides a quarter of Western Europe's gas needs. This European dependence is expected to increase with the future gas pipeline connecting directly the Russia to the Germany, as well as with the decision of the Group of Alexei Miller now market itself its gas to major European final customers, and only to distributors such as gas of France. The acolytes of the value, the future is promising.
Already, with gas prices skyrocketing, the 29 of its production that Gazprom exports in Europe allowed him to double in one year its net quarterly, reaching standards IFRS 6.6 billion at end of March 2006, or a net margin of 33. "Gazprom will probably release a positive free cash flows, for the first time this year," said Elena Anankina Standard & Poor's, which noted the note of the gas to BBB , thus passing the "speculative" rank "value of investment." Net debt of 24 billion of the gas is heavy but is not considered excessive, since in the first quarter it identifies an operating profit of $ 9.8 billion which widely covers financial costs (440 million).
An opaque group
But it is another theme that enthusiasm especially investors: the liberalisation of the gas prices on the Russian market, where Gazprom sells to loss 57 of its production to very regulated prices lower. Rapid liberalization would be the most formidable of the levers of value creation. Some rely, the Kremlin with interest to strengthen Gazprom, his arm in Europe. All that the rumor ready President Vladimir Putin intended to take the Presidency at the end of his term political in 2008...
Despite appearances, the current state of the Russian Mastodon is not bright. In the literal sense first, because the group appears frankly opaque. "Gazprom is much improved but it still has real problems of transparency, more Lukoil and Rosneft, said Kaha Kiknavelidze." It is due to its size, its organization, the confidentiality of its customer contracts, but also to the fact that Gazprom does not consider transparency in its interest. He was thus arrested year last detail its production by field, to counter the criticism on the decline of its major deposits.
Gazprom details nor its costs by segment (production of gas, oil, transport...). Failing this, to form an opinion on the situation of the company, "many look at the evolution of the total costs, continues Kaha Kiknavelidze.". However, for three years, they have experienced inflation parallel to the growth of turnover, which disappointed investors.
Same problem on the side of profitability. Just can be said that it is known to be zero on domestic activities, when independent gas Novatek have an operating margin (Ebitda) of 40. In fact, analysts and managers are limited to the profitability at the level of the group. That does not mean that they are unhappy. "Gazprom has a return on equity of 20, it is satisfactory," provides Angelika Millendorfer, head of the investment in the East in the Austrian Raiffeisen Capital Management, specialist in this area.
Finally, the same lack of detail in trades makes it impossible to measure the productivity of this group of nearly 400,000 people. A 1.4 thousand cubic metres of gas produced by employee, it appears 3 times less productive than Novatek, but the extent is not relevant because Gazprom other occupations than gas upstream.
Investors are accommodated this opacity. As corporate governance deficiencies. Example among others, in its accounts certified standards IFRS, Gazprom recognizes black and white that contracts for the construction of gas pipelines are passed with a company owned by directors of the gas or their parents! But there are other risks associated with the State character of the group. The title has poor performance (reported in scholarship, the dividend is less than 1) and minority shareholders may never see the color of the high price of gas from profits. Because, under the influence of the Kremlin, "the management might affect profits acquisitions including some, such as the purchase of assets for distribution in Western Europe, were not economic rationality for Gazprom but would increase its political influence in Europe", warns Kaha Kiknavelidze.
Colossal investments
Future investments concerned as the group is bulimic. It is currently diversifying walk forced in the electricity, the nuclear and oil. Moreover, its plans for new pipelines to Europe will be very expensive. And, after years of under-investment, must now upgrade its obsolete transportation network and counter the decline of its gas fields. "On the basis of its proven reserves, it has replaced the year latter 27 of its production", said Valery Nesterov in Troika Dialog. We must urgently develop new fields. Result: one week ago, Gazprom has unveiled a colossal investment envelope, of 69 billion between 2007 and 2009. Industrial investment, already past $ 5.5 billion in 2002 to 9.8 billion last year, will be 20 billion in 2008 alone. Aggravating factor, the fields in the future (Yamal, Shtokman field...) are deeper, more distant, and therefore much more expensive to operate than the previous ones. Thus, those Yamal region should have a cost of $ 30 per 1,000 m3 excluding transport, against $ 10 for large current deposits from Russian.
So that he would be bad weather for the Alexei Miller Group if international gas prices fell. "The correction of oil markets in recent months is one of the main weaknesses of the value, because long term of Gazprom export contracts are indexed on the barrel with six or nine months of inertia, recognizes Angelika Millendorfer." But Gazprom a better resisted the decline in crude oil as the entire sector. "Even with this fix, 2006 the snapshot photo is good. Especially, the risks or almost fade for the market to potential lent to the group. A mirror on the alouettes, denounced Renaissance Capital, to which investors likely to be plumer.
